Research & Disclosures

Evidence hierarchy

We prefer primary records: SEC and regulatory filings, government records, contracts, court records, official company documents, ownership disclosures, and direct source material. Strong secondary reporting can corroborate or add context, but it does not replace the underlying receipt when the receipt is available.

Fact, connection, inference

Verified facts, documented relationships, analytical inference, plausible theory, and unresolved claims are not the same thing. The desk aims to label those layers rather than collapse them into one confident narrative.

Falsifiability

A live thesis should state what would make it materially weaker or wrong. Dossiers include a kill switch and a next observable so readers can evaluate what changed rather than simply defend the original story.

Corrections and accountability

Material corrections, thesis changes, closures, and invalidations should remain visible. Closed ideas belong in the Closed Book rather than disappearing from the record.

Positions and conflicts

When a relevant financial interest, sponsorship, or other material conflict exists and is known to the publication, it should be disclosed with the research. The Conspiracy Trader does not accept payment from a covered company in exchange for a favorable thesis.

Use of research

The Conspiracy Trader is an independent publisher of general market research. It is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer, and the publication does not provide individualized investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice.